Lealtad 0–1 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Lealtad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Oviedo II

Javi Cueto 28'

2/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lealtad32%

×Draw27%

Real Oviedo II40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LealtadExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.29

Lealtad

1.13

Real Oviedo II

1.29

Real Oviedo II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 36 away

1.50

creates per match

1.89

0.70

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Lealtad

1.50

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Lealtad

0.70

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw

60%

Lealtad or Real Oviedo II

73%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

68%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+

13%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals

68%

Lealtad 2+ goals

31%

Lealtad 3+ goals

11%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

72%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

37%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)

45%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lealtad scores more

32%

level

27%

Real Oviedo II scores more

40%

Real Oviedo II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Javi Cueto

46'

Felgueroso← René Montoto

60'

Eloy← Jesús Ruiz

62'

Pablo Coutado← Javier Meana

72'

Zucu← Pablo Ferreiro

72'

Joselu Guerra← Iván González

82'

Pablo Menéndez← Marc Alegre

82'

Álvaro Fernández← Javi Cueto

82'

Isaac Sánchez← Álex Suárez

Lealtad

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Clemente Sánchez

46'▲Felgueroso←▼René Montoto

62'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Javier Meana

72'▲Zucu←▼Pablo Ferreiro

Lealtad substitutes

FelguerosoCoutadoZucu

Manager: Jaime Álvarez

60'▲Eloy←▼Jesús Ruiz

72'▲Joselu Guerra←▼Iván González

82'▲Pablo Menéndez←▼Marc Alegre

82'▲Álvaro Fernández←▼Javi Cueto

82'▲Isaac Sánchez←▼Álex Suárez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

EloyGuerraMenéndezFernándezSánchez