Real Oruro vs ABB — League #964 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Real Oruro69%
ABB12%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Real Oruro creates 172% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Real Oruro ↓
Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Real Oruro at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
ABB away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Real Oruro attack 1.67 + ABB defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.26
ABB attack 1.00 + Real Oruro defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 69%?"
Real Oruro at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 69% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Gualberto Villarroel SJReal Oruro
Nacional Potosí
Independiente Petrolero
Always Ready
Oriente Petrolero
Aurora
The Strongest
San Antonio Bulo BuloABB
Bolívar
Jorge Wilstermann
Guabirá
Universitario de Vinto
Real Tomayapo
BloomingIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Real Oruro host ABB on Monday, 6 October 2025 at 21:30. The match is part of the League #964 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Real Oruro vs ABB
Real Oruro and ABB drew 1-1 in League #964 on October 6, 2025.
Goals: G. Rea Mendieta (63' pen), L. Ali (90').
The match was played at Estadio Jesús Bermúdez in Oruro.