ABB 1–2 Real Oruro: Result & Stats | League #964

ABB

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Oruro

R. Orihuela 23'

J. D. Ali Gutierrez 45'

Y. Vallejos 25'

10/22/2025

League #964 · Copa Bolivia - 11Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ABB32%

×Draw26%

Real Oruro42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABBExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.43

ABB

1.21

Real Oruro

1.43

Real Oruro creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.29

1.57

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

ABB

1.29

Real Oruro

1.29

allows per match

ABB

1.57

Real Oruro

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABB+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

ABB or draw

58%

ABB or Real Oruro

74%

Draw or Real Oruro

68%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+

13%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals

70%

ABB 2+ goals

34%

ABB 3+ goals

12%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

76%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

42%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)

43%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.29 + Real Oruro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Oruro attack 1.29 + ABB defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABB scores more

32%

level

26%

Real Oruro scores more

42%

Real Oruro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Oruro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

23'

25'

35'

37'

45'

J. D. Ali Gutierrez↳ L. Vaca

47'

Y. Villegas

59'

B. Espinoza← A. Bharti

59'

R. Ardaya← R. Orihuela

65'

L. Ali

67'

Gustavo Oliveira

67'

C. Ribera← Gustavo Oliveira

77'

S. Galindo← J. Mena

77'

A. Cervantes← G. Rea Mendieta

84'

R. Gomez Saca← J. D. Ali Gutierrez

84'

D. Fernandez← Y. Vallejos

86'

J. Rojas← A. Arroyo

90+2'

S. Zeballos← L. Vaca

ABB

Real

25

23

5

2

30

39

A

▼

Vaca

7

Melgar

77

⚽

▼

Gutierrez

10

A

Ali

19

⚽

▼

Vallejos

11

▼

Oliveira

12

Pereira

15

▼

Mena

44

▼

2

34

8

80

A

Loza

13

⚽

▼

Orihuela

36

Siles

17

▼

Mendieta

11

▼

Arroyo

Manager: Facundo Biondi

59'▲B. Espinoza←▼A. Bharti

59'▲R. Ardaya←▼R. Orihuela

77'▲S. Galindo←▼J. Mena

77'▲A. Cervantes←▼G. Rea Mendieta

86'▲J. Rojas←▼A. Arroyo

ABB substitutes

23Auza29Galindo14Jemio31Espinoza42Ardaya24Rojas77Rivas9Cervantes51Terrazas18Flores32Condori

Manager: Marcelo Robledo

67'▲C. Ribera←▼Gustavo Oliveira

84'▲R. Gomez Saca←▼J. D. Ali Gutierrez

84'▲D. Fernandez←▼Y. Vallejos

90+2'▲S. Zeballos←▼L. Vaca

Real Oruro substitutes

33Garcia20Saca3Virreira44Romero8Velasco35Fernandez65Adan97Orti27Zeballos22Ribera41Gil38Osinaga

ABB 1 – 2 Real Oruro

Real Oruro beat ABB 2-1 in League #964 on October 22, 2025.

Goals: R. Orihuela (23'), Y. Vallejos (25'), J. D. Ali Gutierrez (45').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.

ABB vs Real Oruro — League #964 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

ABB 1 – 2 Real Oruro