ABB 1–2 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

ABB

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Oruro

P. Loza 74' (pen)

M. Ortiz 80', 48'

8/8/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB47%

×Draw22%

Real Oruro31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABBExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.52

ABB

1.92

Real Oruro

1.52

ABB creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.40

creates per match

1.43

1.60

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

ABB

1.40

Real Oruro

1.43

allows per match

ABB

1.60

Real Oruro

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABB+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

ABB or draw

69%

ABB or Real Oruro

78%

Draw or Real Oruro

53%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+

26%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals

85%

ABB 2+ goals

57%

ABB 3+ goals

30%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

78%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

45%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)

60%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Real Oruro defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.92

Real Oruro attack 1.43 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ABB scores more

47%

level

22%

Real Oruro scores more

31%

ABB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Ortiz

Real Oruro · D

9.0

Match Events

1'

Jairo Thomas

14'

Denilson Gutiérrez

37'

Miyhel Ortiz

37'

Miyhel OrtizCard upgrade

46'

48'

57'

57'

62'

64'

66'

C. Ribera← Gustavo Oliveira

70'

M. Quiroga← O. Siles

71'

A. Cervantes← A. Arroyo

73'

Luis Alí

74'

L. Vila← L. Vaca

74'

P. LozaPenalty

77'

Miguel Quiroga

80'

M. Ortiz

85'

Miyhel OrtizGoal confirmed

90+7'

Miguel Quiroga

90+7'

Miguel Quiroga

90+3'

J. Virreira← S. Zeballos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABBReal

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots18

1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.00

0Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots18

2On Target3

6Off Target10

3Blocked5

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box9

Passing

59%Possession41%

318Total Passes208

264Accurate Passes158

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: ABB vs Real Oruro

Real Oruro beat ABB 2-1 in Primera División on August 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Ortiz (48', 80'), P. Loza (74' pen).

ABB controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.

ABB vs Real Oruro — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: ABB vs Real Oruro