Real Betis W 1–0 Granad. Tenerife W: Result & Stats

Real Betis W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granad. Tenerife W

Rosa Márquez 17' (pen)

6/15/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 30Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Real Betis W36%

×Draw25%

Granad. Tenerife W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis WExpected goals in this matchGranad. Tenerife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.41

Real Betis W

1.36

Granad. Tenerife W

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 117 away

1.14

creates per match

1.21

1.61

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Real Betis W

1.14

Granad. Tenerife W

1.21

allows per match

Real Betis W

1.61

Granad. Tenerife W

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw

62%

Real Betis W or Granad. Tenerife W

75%

Draw or Granad. Tenerife W

64%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+

16%

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals

74%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

39%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

16%

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

76%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

41%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

48%

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Betis W scores more

36%

level

25%

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

38%

Granad. Tenerife W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Monday

Granad. Tenerife W · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

Rosa MárquezPenalty

18'

Yerliane Moreno

21'

Tiffany Cameron

46'

Carla Armengol← T. Cameron

46'

María José Pérez← B. Martínez

53'

Nina Chuigoue Dorine

60'

R. Babajide← A. Zaremba

65'

Júlia Aguado

65'

R. Núñez← Júlia Aguado

69'

Jassina Blom

70'

Paula Perea

77'

C. Larsson← Claudia Blanco

77'

Sandra Hernández← Y. Moreno

82'

Natalia Montilla← Violeta Quiles

85'

Andrea Marrero← María Estella

86'

Agustina Barroso

88'

Noelia Salazar← Gema Soliveres

88'

María Jiménez← Carolina Férez

90+3'

Nuria Ligero Fernandez

90+1'

Cassandra Larsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealGranad.

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots10

2Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots10

3On Target1

4Off Target3

6Blocked6

5Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

254Total Passes360

176Accurate Passes268

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Primera División Femenina: Real Betis W 1–0 Granad. Tenerife W

Real Betis W beat Granad. Tenerife W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Rosa Márquez (17' pen).

Granad. Tenerife W controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.

Real Betis W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División Femenina: Real Betis W 1–0 Granad. Tenerife W