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Granad. Tenerife W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Real Betis W
Real Betis W
4/22/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Estadio La Palmera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W55%
×Draw23%
Real Betis W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granad. Tenerife W
1.86
Real Betis W
1.09

Granad. Tenerife W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 104 away

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.63
Real Betis W
1.03

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W
1.15
Real Betis W
2.10

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par
Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Real Betis W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw
78%
Granad. Tenerife W or Real Betis W
77%
Draw or Real Betis W
45%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
32%
Real Betis W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
84%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
55%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
28%
Real Betis W 1+ goals
66%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
30%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
71%
Real Betis W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more
55%
level
23%
Real Betis W scores more
22%

Granad. Tenerife W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granad. Tenerife W vs Real Betis W

Real Betis W beat Granad. Tenerife W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Palmera in Tenerife.