Granad. Tenerife W 1–0 Real Betis W: Result & Stats

Granad. Tenerife W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Betis W

Sandra Hernández 2'

10/15/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 5Campo de Fútbol de Adeje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Granad. Tenerife W55%

×Draw23%

Real Betis W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granad. Tenerife WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.09

Granad. Tenerife W

1.86

Real Betis W

1.09

Granad. Tenerife W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 104 away

1.63

creates per match

1.03

1.15

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.63

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Granad. Tenerife W

1.15

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granad. Tenerife W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Granad. Tenerife W or draw

78%

Granad. Tenerife W or Real Betis W

77%

Draw or Real Betis W

45%

Winning margin

Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+

32%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals

84%

Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals

55%

Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals

28%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

66%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

30%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)

71%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granad. Tenerife W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 121 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.63 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Granad. Tenerife W scores more

55%

level

23%

Real Betis W scores more

22%

Granad. Tenerife W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Granad. Tenerife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Claudia Blanco

Granad. Tenerife W · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

Sandra Hernández↳ Claudia Blanco

10'

Violeta Quiles

32'

Thais Ferreira

46'

Y. Moreno← C. Falknor

46'

Natalia Montilla← Violeta García

46'

Rosa Márquez← Paula Perea

63'

María José Pérez← J. Blom

64'

Yerliane Moreno

74'

Noelia Salazar← Gema Soliveres

77'

E. Okoronkwo← R. Babajide

85'

Andrea Marrero← Sandra Hernández

85'

Ariadna Castañeda← A. NGuessan

85'

Carmen Álvarez← T. Cameron

85'

Blanca Muñoz← Júlia Aguado

90+1'

Rosa Márquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Granad.Real

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots13

4Corners2

20Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target0

2Off Target11

3Blocked2

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

385Total Passes376

289Accurate Passes270

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2