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Reading vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
O. Ejaria 31'
S. Ajayi 79'
2/23/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Reading50%
×Draw25%
Rotherham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.56
Rotherham
1.01

Reading creates 54% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 90 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Rotherham
1.74

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
75%
Reading or Rotherham
75%
Draw or Rotherham
50%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
26%
Rotherham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
79%
Reading 2+ goals
46%
Reading 3+ goals
21%
Rotherham 1+ goals
64%
Rotherham 2+ goals
27%
Rotherham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
67%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reading scores more
50%
level
25%
Rotherham scores more
25%

Reading at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
S. AjayiRotherhamRotherham · D
7.8

Match Events

31'
O. Ejaria↳ G. McCleary
50'
Joe Mattock
54'
John Swift
58'
R. Williams← J. Taylor
59'
Ryan Williams
70'
J. Newell← M. Ihiekwe
72'
J. O'Shea← Y. Meïté
79'
S. Ajayi↳ C. Robertson
86'
C. Harriott← O. Ejaria
86'
M. Barrow← G. McCleary
89'
Will Vaulks
89'
M. Crooks← R. Towell

Possession

54%Reading

Shots

15Reading

Pass accuracy

52%Reading

Statistics

ReadingRotherham
Overview
54%Possession46%
15Total Shots13
5Corners6
10Fouls14
Shots
15Total Shots13
5On Target2
9Off Target4
1Blocked7
9Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
427Total Passes331
344Accurate Passes245
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Reading 1–1 Rotherham

Reading and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Championship on February 23, 2019.

Goals: O. Ejaria (31'), S. Ajayi (79').

Reading controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.