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Reading vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
J. Obita 56'
M. Wilks 82'
2/8/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%
×Draw26%
Hull City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.44
Hull City
1.27

Reading creates 13% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 156 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
67%
Reading or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
Hull City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
76%
Reading 2+ goals
42%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
55%
Hull City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hull City attack 1.19 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more
41%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
33%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. SwiftReadingReading · M
7.9

Match Events

27'
Felipe Araruna← C. Gunter
48'
Leo da Silva Lopes
56'
J. Obita↳ J. Swift
61'
O. Richards← J. Obita
61'
J. Magennis← D. Batty
68'
S. Aluko← S. Baldock
70'
M. Wilks← E. Lichaj
71'
Sean McLoughlin
76'
K. Lewis-Potter← T. Eaves
82'
M. Wilks↳ K. Lewis-Potter
85'
Sone Aluko
88'
Jackson Irvine

Possession

59%Reading

Shots

19Reading

Pass accuracy

53%Reading

Statistics

ReadingHull
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots14
3Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots14
5On Target7
7Off Target3
7Blocked4
11Inside Box4
8Outside Box10
Passing
59%Possession41%
514Total Passes349
417Accurate Passes253
81%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Hull City

Reading and Hull City drew 1-1 in Championship on February 8, 2020.

Goals: J. Obita (56'), M. Wilks (82').

Reading controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.