Hull City 1–2 Reading: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Reading

J. Greaves 9'

R. Longman 90+4' (OG)

Y. Meïté 32'

11/12/2022

Championship · Round 21The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hull City42%

×Draw27%

Reading31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Hull City

1.36

Reading

1.13

Hull City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 112 away

1.24

creates per match

0.99

1.27

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hull City

1.24

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Hull City

1.27

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

69%

Hull City or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

20%

Reading wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

39%

Hull City 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

68%

Reading 2+ goals

31%

Reading 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

57%

Reading (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more

42%

level

27%

Reading scores more

31%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Greaves

Hull City · D

8.2

Match Events

9'

J. Greaves↳ J. Seri

32'

Y. Meïté

40'

Jeff Hendrick

59'

L. Coyle← C. Christie

59'

60'

60'

72'

72'

90+4'

R. LongmanOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullReading

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots9

4Corners6

6Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target4

1Off Target1

7Blocked4

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

596Total Passes320

508Accurate Passes231

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

6Offsides1