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Hull City vs Reading — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Reading
Reading
K. Lewis-Potter 90+4', 40'
A. Jones 53'
4/23/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hull City42%
×Draw27%
Reading31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.36
Reading
1.13

Hull City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.24
Reading
0.99

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
Reading
1.49

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
69%
Hull City or Reading
73%
Draw or Reading
58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
20%
Reading wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
39%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Reading 1+ goals
68%
Reading 2+ goals
31%
Reading 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
57%
Reading (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Reading attack 0.99 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more
42%
level
27%
Reading scores more
31%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. Lewis-PotterHull CityHull City · F
8.7

Match Events

40'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ G. Honeyman
53'
A. Jones
57'
O. Ejaria← T. Dele-Bashiru
59'
Jacob Greaves
73'
Michael Morrison
77'
T. Eaves← A. Sayyadmanesh
82'
R. Longman← L. Coyle
82'
G. Docherty← G. Honeyman
85'
Y. Meïté← T. Ince
86'
Nathan Baxter
90+4'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ T. Eaves

Possession

52%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

50%Hull

Statistics

HullReading
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots13
5Corners5
10Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target4
4Off Target7
2Blocked2
8Inside Box11
1Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
504Total Passes456
408Accurate Passes367
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Reading

Hull City beat Reading 3-0 in Championship on April 23, 2022.

Goals: K. Lewis-Potter (40', 90+4'), A. Jones (53').

Hull City controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.