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Reading vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
A. Yiadom 81'
J. Böðvarsson 70'
S. Baldock 4'
9/22/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%
×Draw26%
Hull City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.44
Hull City
1.27

Reading creates 13% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 156 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
67%
Reading or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
Hull City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
76%
Reading 2+ goals
42%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
55%
Hull City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hull City attack 1.19 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more
41%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
33%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. YiadomReadingReading · D
8.6

Match Events

4'
S. Baldock
33'
Fraizer Campbell
58'
John O'Shea
63'
C. Martin← K. Stewart
63'
K. Grosicki← J. Bowen
68'
J. Swift← S. Ezatolahi
69'
M. Barrow← S. Baldock
70'
J. Böðvarsson↳ A. Yiadom
81'
A. Yiadom
83'
John O'Shea
85'
C. Gunter← L. Kelly
90'
Tommy Elphick

Possession

42%Reading

Shots

14Reading

Pass accuracy

47%Reading

Statistics

ReadingHull
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots9
4Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots9
6On Target2
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
42%Possession58%
373Total Passes493
252Accurate Passes374
68%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Championship: Reading 3–0 Hull City

Reading beat Hull City 3-0 in Championship on September 22, 2018.

Goals: S. Baldock (4'), J. Böðvarsson (70'), A. Yiadom (81').

Hull City controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.