Reading 2–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burton Albion

D. Kyerewaa 37'

J. Marriott 18'

1/1/2026

League One · Round 24Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Reading44%

×Draw26%

Burton Albion30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Reading

1.50

Burton Albion

1.19

Reading creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.36

creates per match

1.32

1.06

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Burton Albion

1.32

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Burton Albion

1.64

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

70%

Reading or Burton Albion

74%

Draw or Burton Albion

56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

22%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

78%

Reading 2+ goals

44%

Reading 3+ goals

19%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

70%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

33%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

60%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more

44%

level

26%

Burton Albion scores more

30%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Kyerewaa

Reading · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

J. Marriott↳ M. Ritchie

37'

D. Kyerewaa

52'

F. Tavares← S. Krubally

68'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← J. Marriott

77'

C. Savage← K. Doyle

77'

M. Camara← M. Ritchie

79'

N. Akoto← T. Vancooten

87'

J. Newall← D. Williams

87'

J. Taroni← J. Larsson

90+1'

A. Ahmed← A. Yiadom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBurton

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots6

1.63Expected Goals (xG)0.39

5Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots6

4On Target2

7Off Target2

8Blocked2

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

449Total Passes410

355Accurate Passes316

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Offsides4