Burton Albion 3–2 Reading: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Reading

B. Kamwa 42'

M. Carayol 11'

M. Bennett 5'

S. Smith 59' (pen)

L. Wing 34'

4/20/2024

League One · Round 45Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion44%

×Draw25%

Reading31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.22

Burton Albion

1.52

Reading

1.22

Burton Albion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.28

creates per match

1.49

0.95

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Reading

1.49

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Reading

1.76

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

69%

Burton Albion or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

56%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

22%

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

78%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

45%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

20%

Reading 1+ goals

70%

Reading 2+ goals

34%

Reading 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

59%

Reading (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reading attack 1.49 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burton Albion scores more

44%

level

25%

Reading scores more

31%

Burton Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Wing

Reading · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

M. Bennett

11'

M. Carayol

26'

C. Gilligan← J. Powell

34'

L. Wing

42'

B. Kamwa↳ R. Sweeney

59'

S. SmithPenalty

64'

J. Hugill← M. Carayol

64'

70'

70'

75'

78'

A. Oshilaja← M. Bennett

78'

A. Ola-Adebomi← M. Helm

82'

J. Wareham← B. Elliott

90+7'

Ademola Ola-Adebomi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonReading

Overview

32%Possession68%

10Total Shots12

4Corners9

13Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots12

7On Target4

1Off Target6

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

229Total Passes473

127Accurate Passes376

55%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1