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Reading vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
S. Smith 82'
C. Campbell 42', 23'
D. Orsi 84'
10/1/2024League OneLeague One · Round 9Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Reading44%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.50
Burton Albion
1.19

Reading creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Reading
1.36
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
70%
Reading or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
22%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
78%
Reading 2+ goals
44%
Reading 3+ goals
19%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
70%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
33%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
60%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more
44%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
30%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
C. CampbellReadingReading · F
8.5

Match Events

23'
C. Campbell
41'
Dylan Williams
42'
C. Campbell
50'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
57'
C. Gilligan← K. Chauke
65'
C. Savage← K. Ehibhatiomhan
65'
K. Abrefa← M. Craig
71'
D. Orsi← R. Donovan
73'
U. Godwin-Malife← J. Cooper-Love
81'
Elliot Watt
82'
S. Smith↳ L. Wing
84'
D. Orsi↳ U. Godwin-Malife
85'
Charlie Savage
86'
H. Dean← A. Garcia
90+1'
A. Akande← C. Campbell

Possession

49%Reading

Shots

15Reading

Pass accuracy

51%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBurton
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots7
4Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots7
5On Target4
6Off Target1
4Blocked2
7Inside Box5
8Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
427Total Passes444
350Accurate Passes352
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

League One: Reading 3–1 Burton Albion

Reading beat Burton Albion 3-1 in League One on October 1, 2024.

Goals: C. Campbell (23', 42'), S. Smith (82'), D. Orsi (84').

Burton Albion controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.