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Reading vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
J. Lowe 59'
D. Solanke 43'
10/30/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Reading31%
×Draw27%
Bournemouth42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.15
Bournemouth
1.37

Bournemouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 50 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw
58%
Reading or Bournemouth
73%
Draw or Bournemouth
69%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
13%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
68%
Reading 2+ goals
32%
Reading 3+ goals
11%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
75%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
40%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
43%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading scores more
31%
level
27%
Bournemouth scores more
42%

Bournemouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. KellyBournemouthBournemouth · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
Josh Laurent
37'
Gavin Kilkenny
38'
Jaidon Anthony
43'
D. Solanke↳ G. Cahill
46'
B. Pearson← G. Kilkenny
56'
J. Lowe← J. Anthony
59'
J. Lowe↳ P. Billing
70'
C. Mepham← J. Zemura
85'
J. Clarke← G. Puşcaş
90+1'
Chris Mepham

Possession

48%Reading

Shots

9Reading

Pass accuracy

49%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBournemouth
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots8
6Corners5
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots8
1On Target3
4Off Target3
4Blocked2
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
398Total Passes456
314Accurate Passes368
79%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
7Offsides0

Championship: Reading 0–2 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Reading 2-0 in Championship on October 30, 2021.

Goals: D. Solanke (43'), J. Lowe (59').

Bournemouth controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.