Bournemouth 1–1 Reading: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

D. Solanke 8'

T. Ince 83'

3/15/2022

Championship · Round 38Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth52%

×Draw25%

Reading23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.98

Bournemouth

1.62

Reading

0.98

Bournemouth creates 65% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 112 away

1.75

creates per match

0.99

0.98

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

77%

Bournemouth or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

48%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

28%

Reading wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

80%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

48%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

22%

Reading 1+ goals

62%

Reading 2+ goals

26%

Reading 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

70%

Reading (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Reading attack 0.99 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bournemouth scores more

52%

level

25%

Reading scores more

23%

Bournemouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Christie

Bournemouth · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

27'

33'

46'

75'

76'

83'

86'

S. Dembélé← J. Anthony

90'

Jefferson Lerma

90+1'

J. Hoilett← O. Ejaria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthReading

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots8

5Corners7

21Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots8

6On Target3

1Off Target2

3Blocked3

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

466Total Passes483

376Accurate Passes384

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1