Reading 3–1 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Bournemouth

Lucas João 43'

T. Mcintyre 31'

J. Laurent 24'

J. Stanislas 85'

1/29/2021

Championship · Round 27Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Reading31%

×Draw27%

Bournemouth42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.37

Reading

1.15

Bournemouth

1.37

Bournemouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 50 away

1.38

creates per match

1.40

1.34

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw

58%

Reading or Bournemouth

73%

Draw or Bournemouth

69%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

68%

Reading 2+ goals

32%

Reading 3+ goals

11%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

75%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

40%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

43%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading scores more

31%

level

27%

Bournemouth scores more

42%

Bournemouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Laurent

Reading · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

31'

31'

34'

43'

Lucas João↳ O. Ejaria

46'

A. Smith← Diego Rico

46'

J. Wilshere← J. Lerma

46'

D. Brooks← A. Groeneveld

72'

Alfa Semedo← J. Swift

77'

S. Aluko← O. Ejaria

81'

J. Stanislas← P. Billing

85'

J. Stanislas

88'

A. Yiadom← T. Holmes

88'

Y. Meïté← Lucas João

88'

Tomás Esteves← M. Olise

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBournemouth

Overview

38%Possession62%

18Total Shots19

2Corners12

12Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots19

9On Target5

5Off Target5

4Blocked9

11Inside Box14

7Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

310Total Passes487

215Accurate Passes391

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Reading vs Bournemouth

Reading beat Bournemouth 3-1 in Championship on January 29, 2021.

Goals: J. Laurent (24'), T. Mcintyre (31'), Lucas João (43'), J. Stanislas (85').

Bournemouth controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 18.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Reading vs Bournemouth