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RCA vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
CANC
00:00
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
3/16/2020Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 12Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RCA59%
×Draw19%
Brazil Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
2.54
Brazil Juniors
1.52

RCA creates 67% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 9 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
Brazil Juniors
1.89

allows per match

RCA
1.15
Brazil Juniors
2.78

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

RCA or draw
78%
RCA or Brazil Juniors
81%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
41%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
38%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
92%
RCA 2+ goals
72%
RCA 3+ goals
46%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
78%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
45%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
73%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.54

Brazil Juniors attack 1.89 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RCA scores more
59%
level
19%
Brazil Juniors scores more
22%

RCA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RCA host Brazil Juniors

March 16, 2020: RCA take on Brazil Juniors in Division di Honor. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RCA host Brazil Juniors at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.