Brazil Juniors 0–3 RCA: Result & Stats

Brazil Juniors

FT

0 – 3

RCA

10/7/2019

Division di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brazil Juniors22%

×Draw19%

RCA59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brazil JuniorsExpected goals in this matchRCA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.41

Brazil Juniors

1.41

RCA

2.41

RCA creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

1.85

creates per match

2.51

2.31

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Brazil Juniors

1.85

RCA

2.51

allows per match

Brazil Juniors

2.31

RCA

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

RCA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw

41%

Brazil Juniors or RCA

81%

Draw or RCA

78%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+

9%

RCA wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals

76%

Brazil Juniors 2+ goals

41%

Brazil Juniors 3+ goals

17%

RCA 1+ goals

91%

RCA 2+ goals

69%

RCA 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)

27%

RCA (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

RCA away — creates 2.51, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.85 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.41

RCA attack 2.51 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more

22%

level

19%

RCA scores more

59%

RCA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff