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RCA vs Brazil Juniors — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
0 – 0
Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
12/1/2018Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 7Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

RCA74%
×Draw14%
Brazil Juniors12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
3.05
Brazil Juniors
1.19

RCA creates 156% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

RCA
2.42
Brazil Juniors
1.25

allows per match

RCA
1.13
Brazil Juniors
3.69

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Brazil Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

RCA or draw
88%
RCA or Brazil Juniors
86%
Draw or Brazil Juniors
26%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
54%
Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
95%
RCA 2+ goals
80%
RCA 3+ goals
57%
Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
70%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
33%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
86%
Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.13 · 62 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.42 + Brazil Juniors defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 3.05

Brazil Juniors attack 1.25 + RCA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

RCA scores more
74%
level
14%
Brazil Juniors scores more
12%

RCA at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: RCA 0–0 Brazil Juniors

RCA and Brazil Juniors drew 0-0 in Division di Honor on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad).