RC Arba 2–0 JS Saoura: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

RC Arba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JS Saoura

3/10/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RC Arba47%

×Draw27%

JS Saoura26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC ArbaExpected goals in this matchJS Saoura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.99

RC Arba

1.41

JS Saoura

0.99

RC Arba creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 107 away

1.61

creates per match

0.84

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

RC Arba

1.61

JS Saoura

0.84

allows per match

RC Arba

1.15

JS Saoura

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par

JS Saoura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

JS Saoura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw

74%

RC Arba or JS Saoura

73%

Draw or JS Saoura

53%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+

23%

JS Saoura wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals

76%

RC Arba 2+ goals

41%

RC Arba 3+ goals

17%

JS Saoura 1+ goals

63%

JS Saoura 2+ goals

26%

JS Saoura 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)

64%

JS Saoura (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

JS Saoura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.61 + JS Saoura defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

JS Saoura attack 0.84 + RC Arba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RC Arba scores more

47%

level

27%

JS Saoura scores more

26%

RC Arba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff