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JS Saoura vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RC Arba
RC Arba
9/16/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

JS Saoura60%
×Draw24%
RC Arba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.68
RC Arba
0.72

JS Saoura creates 133% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 33 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.77
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
84%
JS Saoura or RC Arba
76%
Draw or RC Arba
40%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
34%
RC Arba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
81%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
50%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
24%
RC Arba 1+ goals
51%
RC Arba 2+ goals
16%
RC Arba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
79%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 109 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.77 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

RC Arba attack 0.82 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

JS Saoura scores more
60%
level
24%
RC Arba scores more
16%

JS Saoura at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Saoura vs RC Arba

JS Saoura beat RC Arba 1-0 in Ligue 1 on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Bechar.