RB Bragantino U20 2–1 Palmeiras U20: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras U20

Filipinho 85'

Vinicius Lago 79'

Heittor 34'

6/12/2025

Brasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RB Bragantino U2031%

×Draw22%

Palmeiras U2048%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Bragantino U20Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.99

RB Bragantino U20

1.57

Palmeiras U20

1.99

Palmeiras U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 64 away

1.95

creates per match

2.13

1.85

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20

1.95

Palmeiras U20

2.13

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20

1.85

Palmeiras U20

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw

52%

RB Bragantino U20 or Palmeiras U20

78%

Draw or Palmeiras U20

69%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+

14%

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals

79%

RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals

46%

RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals

21%

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

86%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

59%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.85 · 39 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.19 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 1.95 + Palmeiras U20 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.57

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.13 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more

31%

level

22%

Palmeiras U20 scores more

48%

Palmeiras U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Heittor

45+1'

J. Guilherme

45+1'

Aranha

79'

Vinicius Lago

85'

Filipinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff