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Palmeiras U20 vs RB Bragantino U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2020

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
Felipe Teresa 90', 82'
Luccas Ramon 90'
Rafael Lima 24'
Gabriel Lopes 5'
4/8/2026Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Palmeiras U2047%
×Draw23%
RB Bragantino U2030%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
1.79
RB Bragantino U20
1.39

Palmeiras U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 41 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
2.35
RB Bragantino U20
1.56

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
1.22
RB Bragantino U20
1.24

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
70%
Palmeiras U20 or RB Bragantino U20
77%
Draw or RB Bragantino U20
53%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
25%
RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
83%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
53%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
26%
RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
75%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
40%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
61%
RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.35 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

RB Bragantino U20 attack 1.56 + Palmeiras U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
47%
level
23%
RB Bragantino U20 scores more
30%

Palmeiras U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Gabriel Lopes
24'
Rafael Lima
82'
Felipe Teresa
90+6'
90'
Luccas Ramon
90'
Felipe Teresa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 A: Palmeiras U20 3–2 RB Bragantino U20

Palmeiras U20 beat RB Bragantino U20 3-2 in Brasileiro U20 A on April 8, 2026.

Goals: Gabriel Lopes (5'), Rafael Lima (24'), Felipe Teresa (82', 90'), Luccas Ramon (90').