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RB Bragantino U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
I. Reis 90+3'
Luis Gustavo 45+3'
6/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

RB Bragantino U2038%
×Draw24%
Palmeiras U2038%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
1.58
Palmeiras U20
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
62%
RB Bragantino U20 or Palmeiras U20
76%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
62%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
19%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
79%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
47%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
21%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
80%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
47%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.58

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
38%
level
24%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
38%

RB Bragantino U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Gabriel Richvicki
45+3'
Luis Gustavo
90+3'
I. Reis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Bragantino U20 vs Palmeiras U20

RB Bragantino U20 beat Palmeiras U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 6, 2025.

Goals: Luis Gustavo (45+3'), I. Reis (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.