Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Internacional de Madrid

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Héctor Hernández 90+2'

Borja González 12'

Kenneth Soler 74'

2/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda45%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Madrid27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.92

Rayo Majadahonda

1.29

Internacional de Madrid

0.92

Rayo Majadahonda creates 40% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

1.17

creates per match

0.76

1.07

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

73%

Rayo Majadahonda or Internacional de Madrid

72%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

55%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

21%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

72%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

37%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

14%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

60%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

23%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

63%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

45%

level

28%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

27%

Rayo Majadahonda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Borja González

40'

J. Moyano

63'

Nando García← Javi Gómez

63'

Tropi← Néstor Albiach

65'

Nando

69'

Kenneth Soler← David Barral

72'

R. Ramos

73'

Ángel Bastos← P. Osei

73'

Gorka Iturraspe← Mawi

74'

Kenneth Soler

79'

Álvaro Montero← Adrián Mance

80'

Rubén Sánchez← Mario García

81'

A. Bastos

90+2'

Héctor Hernández

Rayo

Internacional

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Abel Gómez

63'▲Nando García←▼Javi Gómez

63'▲Tropi←▼Néstor Albiach

73'▲Ángel Bastos←▼P. Osei

73'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Mawi

80'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Mario García

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

GarcíaTropiBastosIturraspeSánchezFernándezVegaClaudioJuanjoRodríguezSusaeta

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

69'▲Kenneth Soler←▼David Barral

79'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerMonteroWashingtonGilMasogoZambranoSiuKolderiuBadiashileBrulmans

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Internacional de Madrid

Rayo Majadahonda beat Internacional de Madrid 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 6, 2022.

Goals: Borja González (12'), Kenneth Soler (74'), Héctor Hernández (90+2').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Rayo Majadahonda vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Internacional de Madrid