Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Internacional de Madrid

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

David Barral 53'

2/21/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda40%

×Draw32%

Internacional de Madrid28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.83

Rayo Majadahonda

1.04

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Rayo Majadahonda creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.08

creates per match

1.08

0.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.08

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

0.58

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

72%

Rayo Majadahonda or Internacional de Madrid

68%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

60%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

16%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

9%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

56%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

58%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

40%

level

32%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

28%

Rayo Majadahonda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Raúl Sánchez← Gorka Iturraspe

53'

David Barral

56'

Rubén Sánchez← Néstor Susaeta

63'

Víctor Villacañas← Sergio Arribas

74'

Mawi← Higor Rocha

81'

Adrià de Mesa← David Barral

90+5'

Franco← Rubén Ramos

Rayo

Internacional

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Iriondo

46'▲Raúl Sánchez←▼Gorka Iturraspe

56'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Néstor Susaeta

74'▲Mawi←▼Higor Rocha

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

SánchezSánchezMawiDíazJuanjoRicoGiffardAbouOsei

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

63'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Sergio Arribas

81'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼David Barral

90+5'▲Franco←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

VillacañasMesaFrancoArthurAguileraJiménezMarcosValeroJunior