Internacional de Madrid 2–4 Rayo Majadahonda

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

Álvaro Montero 76'

Adrián Mance 7' (pen)

Raúl Sánchez 90+4', 72', 53'

Borja González 68'

11/13/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid50%

×Draw25%

Rayo Majadahonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.10

Internacional de Madrid

1.64

Rayo Majadahonda

1.10

Internacional de Madrid creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

1.82

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or Rayo Majadahonda

75%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

50%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

26%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

81%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

49%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

23%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

67%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

30%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

66%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

50%

level

25%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Adrián MancePenalty

20'

A. Bastos

41'

C. Perez

53'

Raúl Sánchez

58'

N. Albiach

58'

M. Sanchez

59'

Rubén Sánchez← Mario García

61'

Rubén Ramos← Álex Zambrano

68'

Borja González

69'

Javi Gómez← Mawi

69'

Juanjo← Néstor Albiach

72'

Alberto Gil← Reguera

72'

Álvaro Montero← Álvaro Martín

72'

Raúl Sánchez

76'

Álvaro Montero

81'

Kenneth Soler← Adrián Mance

81'

S. Brulmans← David Barral

83'

P. Osei← Gorka Iturraspe

90+4'

Raúl Sánchez

Internacional

Rayo

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

61'▲Rubén Ramos←▼Álex Zambrano

72'▲Alberto Gil←▼Reguera

72'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Álvaro Martín

81'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Adrián Mance

81'▲S. Brulmans←▼David Barral

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RamosGilMonteroSolerBrulmansMasogoSiuKolderiuBlázquezGonzález

Manager: Abel Gómez

59'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼Mario García

69'▲Javi Gómez←▼Mawi

69'▲Juanjo←▼Néstor Albiach

83'▲P. Osei←▼Gorka Iturraspe

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

SánchezGómezJuanjoOseiFernándezCasadoGiraltLópezSusaetaTassembedo

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Rayo Majadahonda

Rayo Majadahonda beat Internacional de Madrid 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 13, 2021.

Goals: Adrián Mance (7' pen), Raúl Sánchez (53', 72', 90+4'), Borja González (68'), Álvaro Montero (76').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Rayo Majadahonda