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Rayo Majadahonda vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
9/2/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda38%
×Draw30%
Gimnastic32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.11
Gimnastic
0.98

Rayo Majadahonda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Gimnastic
0.89

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Gimnastic
1.05

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
68%
Rayo Majadahonda or Gimnastic
70%
Draw or Gimnastic
62%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
16%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
67%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
30%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
62%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
26%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
55%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
38%
level
30%
Gimnastic scores more
32%

Rayo Majadahonda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Gimnastic

Rayo Majadahonda and Gimnastic drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.