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Gimnastic vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
5/25/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic55%
×Draw25%
Rayo Majadahonda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.58
Rayo Majadahonda
0.83

Gimnastic creates 90% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.71
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.71
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
80%
Gimnastic or Rayo Majadahonda
75%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
45%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
79%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
47%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
21%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
56%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
20%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
74%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gimnastic scores more
55%
level
25%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
20%

Gimnastic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Gimnastic 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Gimnastic beat Rayo Majadahonda 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.