Gimnastic 0–1 Rayo Majadahonda: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

9/2/2018

Segunda División · Round 3Nou Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gimnastic43%

×Draw26%

Rayo Majadahonda30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.15

Gimnastic

1.43

Rayo Majadahonda

1.15

Gimnastic creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.05

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.05

Rayo Majadahonda

1.10

allows per match

Gimnastic

1.19

Rayo Majadahonda

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

70%

Gimnastic or Rayo Majadahonda

74%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

57%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

21%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

76%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

42%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

17%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

68%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

32%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

59%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.05 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.10 + Gimnastic defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gimnastic scores more

43%

level

26%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

30%

Gimnastic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff