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Rayo Majadahonda vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
12/6/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda48%
×Draw29%
Atlético Madrid II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.27
Atlético Madrid II
0.79

Rayo Majadahonda creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.08
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
0.58
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
77%
Rayo Majadahonda or Atlético Madrid II
71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
52%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
72%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
36%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
48%
level
29%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
23%

Rayo Majadahonda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Atlético Madrid II

Rayo Majadahonda beat Atlético Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.