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Rayo Majadahonda vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
9/22/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda35%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.20
Atlético Madrid II
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
62%
Rayo Majadahonda or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
65%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
34%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
48%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
35%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
38%

Atlético Madrid II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Majadahonda 1 – 0 Atlético Madrid II

Rayo Majadahonda beat Atlético Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.