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Atlético Madrid II vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
2/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Madrid II61%
×Draw22%
Rayo Majadahonda17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.83
Rayo Majadahonda
0.84

Atlético Madrid II creates 118% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
83%
Atlético Madrid II or Rayo Majadahonda
78%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
39%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
35%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
28%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
57%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
21%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
78%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
61%
level
22%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
17%

Atlético Madrid II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II 0 – 1 Rayo Majadahonda

Rayo Majadahonda beat Atlético Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.