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Bari vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Empoli
Empoli
N. Ninković 78'
M. Zajc 64'
F. Caputo 29'
A. Donnarumma 8'
1/27/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 23San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bari31%
×Draw25%
Empoli44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.30
Empoli
1.58

Empoli creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bari
0.97
Empoli
1.27

allows per match

Bari
1.90
Empoli
1.64

finishing

Bari-0.33scores less
Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bari or draw
56%
Bari or Empoli
75%
Draw or Empoli
69%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
14%
Empoli wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
73%
Bari 2+ goals
37%
Bari 3+ goals
14%
Empoli 1+ goals
79%
Empoli 2+ goals
47%
Empoli 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
42%
Empoli (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.90 · 11 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 0.97 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Empoli attack 1.27 + Bari defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bari scores more
31%
level
25%
Empoli scores more
44%

Empoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Donnarumma↳ M. Pasqual
29'
F. Caputo↳ M. Zajc
33'
Luca Marrone
36'
Liam Henderson
52'
Rade Krunić
58'
M. Basha← L. Marrone
59'
M. Busellato← L. Henderson
63'
Migjen Basha
64'
M. Zajc
74'
N. Ninković← M. Zajc
78'
N. Ninković↳ F. Caputo
82'
S. D'Elia← R. Improta
82'
L. Lollo← F. Caputo
86'
L. Polvani← G. Di Lorenzo

Possession

38%Bari

Shots

8Bari

Statistics

BariEmpoli
Overview
38%Possession62%
8Total Shots15
6Corners4
11Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots15
1On Target9
7Off Target6
Passing
38%Possession62%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Bari 0 – 4 Empoli

Empoli beat Bari 4-0 in Serie B on January 27, 2018.

Goals: A. Donnarumma (8'), F. Caputo (29'), M. Zajc (64'), N. Ninković (78').

Empoli controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at San Nicola in Bari.