Empoli 5–0 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bari

J. Ceesay 90'

P. Pellegri 89'

G. Yepes 66'

S. Shpendi 52'

G. Guarino 45'

11/29/2025

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Empoli60%

×Draw23%

Bari17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.82

Empoli

1.79

Bari

0.82

Empoli creates 118% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.72

creates per match

0.72

0.92

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Empoli

1.72

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Empoli

0.92

Bari

1.86

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Empoli-0.26scores less

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

83%

Empoli or Bari

77%

Draw or Bari

40%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

35%

Bari wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

83%

Empoli 2+ goals

53%

Empoli 3+ goals

26%

Bari 1+ goals

56%

Bari 2+ goals

20%

Bari 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

78%

Bari (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.72 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bari attack 0.72 + Empoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Empoli scores more

60%

level

23%

Bari scores more

17%

Empoli at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Degli Innocenti

Empoli · M

8.7

Match Events

24'

Lorenzo Dickmann

39'

Francesco Vicari

45'

G. Guarino↳ D. Degli Innocenti

52'

S. Shpendi↳ B. Moruzzi

61'

M. Antonucci← G. Castrovilli

61'

E. Rao← R. Pagano

62'

J. Ceesay← S. Shpendi

63'

R. Ilie← E. Saporiti

63'

P. Pellegri← M. Nasti

64'

Joseph Ceesay

66'

G. Yepes↳ P. Pellegri

71'

F. Carboni← S. Elia

76'

V. Colangiuli← M. Verreth

76'

C. Gytkjaer← R. Pucino

83'

A. Ghion← G. Yepes

89'

P. Pellegri↳ D. Degli Innocenti

90'

A. Partipilo← G. Moncini

90'

J. Ceesay↳ P. Pellegri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliBari

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots7

1.59Expected Goals (xG)0.26

4Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots7

8On Target0

2Off Target5

6Blocked2

13Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

445Total Passes425

377Accurate Passes349

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie B: Empoli 5–0 Bari

Empoli beat Bari 5-0 in Serie B on November 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Guarino (45'), S. Shpendi (52'), G. Yepes (66'), P. Pellegri (89'), J. Ceesay (90').

Empoli controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.

Empoli vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Empoli 5–0 Bari