Bari 2–1 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

G. Maggiore 72'

E. Rao 42'

S. Shpendi 45'

3/4/2026

Serie B · Round 28Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bari31%

×Draw25%

Empoli44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.58

Bari

1.30

Empoli

1.58

Empoli creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

0.97

creates per match

1.27

1.90

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Bari

0.97

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Bari

1.90

Empoli

1.64

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Bari-0.33scores less

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bari or draw

56%

Bari or Empoli

75%

Draw or Empoli

69%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

14%

Empoli wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

73%

Bari 2+ goals

37%

Bari 3+ goals

14%

Empoli 1+ goals

79%

Empoli 2+ goals

47%

Empoli 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

42%

Empoli (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.90 · 11 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 0.97 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Empoli attack 1.27 + Bari defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bari scores more

31%

level

25%

Empoli scores more

44%

Empoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

M. Dorval

Bari · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

Gerard Yepes

22'

Daniel FilaGoal cancelled

23'

Matteo Lovato

29'

G. Guarino← E. Saporiti

42'

E. Rao↳ M. Dorval

45'

S. Shpendi

48'

Emanuele RaoPenalty cancelled

59'

Tomás Esteves

61'

D. Degli Innocenti← G. Yepes

62'

R. Ilie← D. Fila

64'

N. Bellomo← T. Esteves

72'

G. Maggiore↳ M. Dorval

77'

77'

80'

80'

89'

89'

M. Braunoder← G. Maggiore

90+1'

Andrea Cistana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariEmpoli

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots11

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.55

3Corners8

16Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

5Off Target1

3Blocked6

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

372Total Passes291

303Accurate Passes203

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.98Goals Prevented-0.98

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Bari 2 – 1 Empoli

Bari beat Empoli 2-1 in Serie B on March 4, 2026.

Goals: E. Rao (42'), S. Shpendi (45'), G. Maggiore (72').

Bari controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bari 2 – 1 Empoli