Ratchaburi 2–2 Port FC: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Port FC

T. Tanaka 47', 22'

B. Phala 50'

Willen Mota 8'

9/1/2024

League #296 · Round 5Dragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ratchaburi52%

×Draw24%

Port FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchPort FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Ratchaburi

1.73

Port FC

1.10

Ratchaburi creates 57% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

1.16

1.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ratchaburi

1.66

Port FC

1.16

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.05

Port FC

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Port FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

76%

Ratchaburi or Port FC

76%

Draw or Port FC

48%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

28%

Port FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

82%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

52%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

25%

Port FC 1+ goals

67%

Port FC 2+ goals

30%

Port FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

68%

Port FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Port FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Port FC attack 1.16 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

52%

level

24%

Port FC scores more

24%

Ratchaburi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Tanaka

Ratchaburi · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

Willen Mota↳ P. Charoenrattanapirom

22'

T. Tanaka↳ J. Curran

36'

Pathompon Charoenrattanapirom

47'

T. Tanaka↳ M. Mara

50'

B. Phala↳ L. Doumbouya

53'

Peeradol Chamratsamee

54'

Kritsanon Srisuwan

61'

Willen MotaGoal cancelled

66'

T. Poeiphimai← P. Charoenrattanapirom

66'

W. Kanitsribumphen← P. Chamrasamee

79'

Isaac HonnyCard reviewed

81'

C. Aukkee← Irfan Fandi

81'

P. Parmpak← L. Doumbouya

88'

C. Buran← K. Deeromram

90'

Mohamed Mara

90+6'

Kampol Pathomakkakul

90+5'

Kampol PathomakkakulCard upgrade

90+8'

C. Maunchaingam← T. Tanaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RatchaburiPort

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots14

2Corners2

10Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target4

2Off Target6

2Blocked4

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

470Total Passes474

399Accurate Passes415

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1