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Port FC vs Ratchaburi — League #296 2026

Port FC
Port FC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
P. Mlapa 85' (pen)
C. Aukkee 66'
L. Doumbouya 45+2'
T. Tanaka 48', 44'
G. Mutombo 37'
1/24/2025League #296League #296 · Round 19PAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Port FC44%
×Draw26%
Ratchaburi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port FC
1.44
Ratchaburi
1.15

Port FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 80 away

creates per match

Port FC
1.33
Ratchaburi
1.34

allows per match

Port FC
0.95
Ratchaburi
1.55

finishing

Port FC+0.00on par
Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port FC ↓

Ratchaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Port FC or draw
70%
Port FC or Ratchaburi
74%
Draw or Ratchaburi
56%

Winning margin

Port FC wins by 2+
21%
Ratchaburi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Port FC 1+ goals
76%
Port FC 2+ goals
42%
Port FC 3+ goals
18%
Ratchaburi 1+ goals
68%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
32%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Port FC (draw refunded)
59%
Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port FC attack 1.33 + Ratchaburi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ratchaburi attack 1.34 + Port FC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port FC scores more
44%
level
26%
Ratchaburi scores more
30%

Port FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
T. TanakaRatchaburiRatchaburi · M
8.5

Match Events

29'
Jonathan Khemdee
29'
Jakkaphan KaewpromGoal cancelled
37'
A. Amornlertsak← Tardeli
37'
G. Mutombo↳ Tana
44'
T. Tanaka↳ J. Curran
45+6'
Peeradol Chamratsamee
45+2'
L. Doumbouya↳ K. Deeromram
48'
T. Tanaka↳ Tana
55'
C. Wongchai← I. Honny
55'
P. Mlapa← L. Doumbouya
60'
Noboru ShimuraGoal cancelled
66'
C. Aukkee↳ K. Deeromram
67'
A. Sorada← K. Chiamudom
72'
Thanawat Suengchitthawon
72'
Jakkaphan Kaewprom
75'
Kim Ji-Min← T. Tanaka
75'
C. Dépres← N. Rakotoharimalala
79'
A. Mangkualam← B. Phala
84'
Chalermsak AukkeePenalty confirmed
85'
P. MlapaPenalty
88'
S. Chakkuprasart← J. Kaewprom
88'
S. Leeaoh← Tana

Possession

49%Port

Shots

10Port

Pass accuracy

50%Port

Statistics

PortRatchaburi
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots12
5Corners5
14Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target6
5Off Target5
1Blocked1
9Inside Box11
1Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
308Total Passes324
255Accurate Passes270
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

League #296: Port FC 3–3 Ratchaburi

Port FC and Ratchaburi drew 3-3 in League #296 on January 24, 2025.

Goals: G. Mutombo (37'), T. Tanaka (44', 48'), L. Doumbouya (45+2'), C. Aukkee (66'), P. Mlapa (85' pen).

Ratchaburi controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at PAT Stadium in Bangkok.