Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ratchaburi vs Port FC — League #296 2026

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Port FC
Port FC
Tyronne 90+8' (pen), 15'
Felipe Amorim 43' (pen)
W. Kanitsribumphen 34'
5/19/2024League #296League #296 · Round 29Dragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ratchaburi52%
×Draw24%
Port FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
1.73
Port FC
1.10

Ratchaburi creates 57% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
1.66
Port FC
1.16

allows per match

Ratchaburi
1.05
Port FC
1.79

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
76%
Ratchaburi or Port FC
76%
Draw or Port FC
48%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
28%
Port FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
82%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
52%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
25%
Port FC 1+ goals
67%
Port FC 2+ goals
30%
Port FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
68%
Port FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Port FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Port FC attack 1.16 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
52%
level
24%
Port FC scores more
24%

Ratchaburi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
TyronneRatchaburiRatchaburi · M
8.9

Match Events

15'
Tyronne↳ K. Chiamudom
34'
W. Kanitsribumphen↳ A. Mangkualam
41'
Kevin DeeromramPenalty confirmed
43'
Felipe AmorimPenalty
48'
Kritsanon Srisuwan
55'
S. Kannoo← K. Tasa
56'
Chalermsak Aukkee
59'
Frans Dhia Putros
62'
S. Bureerat← A. Mangkualam
63'
S. Boonlha← T. Kesarat
66'
S. Chakkuprasart← P. Sangkasopha
69'
TyronnePenalty confirmed
76'
Hein Phyo Win← A. Promrak
77'
T. Siripala← B. Phala
77'
T. Poeiphimai← W. Kanitsribumphen
82'
J. Satham← K. Deeromram
90+6'
Kritsanon SrisuwanPenalty confirmed
90+6'
Chalermsak Aukkee
90+6'
Chalermsak Aukkee
90+8'
TyronnePenalty

Possession

49%Ratchaburi

Shots

13Ratchaburi

Pass accuracy

49%Ratchaburi

Statistics

RatchaburiPort
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots10
5Corners2
8Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots10
6On Target4
4Off Target4
3Blocked2
10Inside Box5
3Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
422Total Passes452
360Accurate Passes392
85%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

League #296: Ratchaburi 2–2 Port FC

Ratchaburi and Port FC drew 2-2 in League #296 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: Tyronne (15', 90+8' pen), W. Kanitsribumphen (34'), Felipe Amorim (43' pen).

Port FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Dragon Solar Park in Ratchaburi.