Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

Raków Częstochowa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Puszcza Niepołomice

Ivi López 38'

Jean Carlos 32'

9/28/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 10Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa61%

×Draw23%

Puszcza Niepołomice16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.78

Raków Częstochowa

1.79

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.78

Raków Częstochowa creates 129% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 34 away

1.76

creates per match

0.76

0.80

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.76

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.76

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

0.80

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

84%

Raków Częstochowa or Puszcza Niepołomice

77%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

39%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

35%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

26%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

54%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

18%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

79%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.76 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

61%

level

23%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

16%

Raków Częstochowa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ivi López

Raków Częstochowa · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

Matej Rodin

18'

Jakub Serafin

32'

Jean Carlos↳ Ivi López

38'

51'

54'

56'

56'

M. Walski← J. Serafin

60'

J. Braut Brunes← T. Walczak

60'

P. Baráth← V. Kochergin

60'

J. Díaz← Ivi López

67'

K. Okoniewski← M. Sipľak

72'

Jonatan Braut Brunes

73'

M. Ameyaw← Adriano Amorim

79'

I. Pieprzyca← M. Kosidis

79'

D. Kogut← H. Tomalski

86'

Piotr Mroziński

90'

M. Rundić← A. Mosór

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RakówPuszcza

Overview

70%Possession30%

14Total Shots4

1.98Expected Goals (xG)0.11

5Corners0

14Fouls28

Shots

14Total Shots4

6On Target0

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

6Inside Box2

8Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

471Total Passes211

380Accurate Passes117

81%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls28

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4