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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
3/9/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice35%
×Draw25%
Raków Częstochowa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 118 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Raków Częstochowa
1.42

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Raków Częstochowa
1.20

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
60%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Raków Częstochowa
75%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
65%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
15%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
74%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
38%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
15%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
76%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
42%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
47%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.20 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.42 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
35%
level
25%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
40%

Raków Częstochowa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Raków Częstochowa

Puszcza Niepołomice and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.