Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Raków Częstochowa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Puszcza Niepołomice

7/3/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raków Częstochowa63%

×Draw19%

Puszcza Niepołomice19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.22

Raków Częstochowa

2.37

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.22

Raków Częstochowa creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

2.36

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

2.36

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.23

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.21

Puszcza Niepołomice

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

81%

Raków Częstochowa or Puszcza Niepołomice

81%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

37%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

40%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

91%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

68%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

42%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

70%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

34%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

77%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 2.36 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.37

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.23 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

63%

level

19%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

19%

Raków Częstochowa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff