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Raja Casablanca vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
11/26/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 1Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Raja Casablanca54%
×Draw29%
FAR Rabat18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.32
FAR Rabat
0.62

Raja Casablanca creates 113% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.64
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.36
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
82%
Raja Casablanca or FAR Rabat
71%
Draw or FAR Rabat
46%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
26%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
73%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
38%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
15%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
46%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
13%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
75%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
54%
level
29%
FAR Rabat scores more
18%

Raja Casablanca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Raja Casablanca 2-0 in CAF Champions League on November 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.