FAR Rabat 1–1 Raja Casablanca: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Raja Casablanca

1/11/2025

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat49%

×Draw27%

Raja Casablanca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchRaja Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

FAR Rabat

1.46

Raja Casablanca

0.94

FAR Rabat creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

1.39

0.50

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Raja Casablanca

1.39

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Raja Casablanca

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Raja Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

76%

FAR Rabat or Raja Casablanca

73%

Draw or Raja Casablanca

51%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

24%

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

77%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

43%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

18%

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

61%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

24%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

67%

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Raja Casablanca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Raja Casablanca attack 1.39 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

49%

level

27%

Raja Casablanca scores more

24%

FAR Rabat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff