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FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
2/23/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FAR Rabat40%
×Draw28%
Raja Casablanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.25
Raja Casablanca
1.09

FAR Rabat creates 15% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 121 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.57
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.85
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
68%
FAR Rabat or Raja Casablanca
72%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
60%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
18%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
71%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
36%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
13%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
66%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
30%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
55%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 119 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.57 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
40%
level
28%
Raja Casablanca scores more
32%

FAR Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FAR Rabat 0–0 Raja Casablanca

FAR Rabat and Raja Casablanca drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.