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Raja Casablanca vs FAR Rabat — Cup 2020

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablancaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
M. Boulacsou 79'
Y. Bouzok 6'
A. Zouhzouh 28'
7/1/2024CupCup · FinalStade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raja Casablanca44%
×Draw27%
FAR Rabat29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.38
FAR Rabat
1.08

Raja Casablanca creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
2.00
FAR Rabat
1.50

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.67
FAR Rabat
0.75

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
71%
Raja Casablanca or FAR Rabat
73%
Draw or FAR Rabat
56%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
21%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
75%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
40%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
16%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
66%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
29%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
60%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 2.00 + FAR Rabat defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

FAR Rabat attack 1.50 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
44%
level
27%
FAR Rabat scores more
29%

Raja Casablanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Y. Bouzok
20'
N. Zerhouni
28'
A. Zouhzouh
42'
K. Ouarkhane Alt
45+1'
Z. Marour
46'
A. Ennaffati← E. Maouhoub
47'
M. Zrida
63'
K. Ouarkhane Alt← Z. Habti
68'
I. Mokadem
79'
M. Boulacsou
83'
N. Zerhouni← A. A. Camara
87'
Z. Habti
90'
T. Orebonye← L. Diakite
90+2'
Y. Bouzok← M. Zila
90+2'
S. Bougrine← G. Herve
90+4'
M. Hrimat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs FAR Rabat

Raja Casablanca beat FAR Rabat 2-1 in Cup on July 1, 2024.

Goals: Y. Bouzok (6'), A. Zouhzouh (28'), M. Boulacsou (79').

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.