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Raja Casablanca vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
1/23/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 4Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Raja Casablanca43%
×Draw28%
FAR Rabat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.27
FAR Rabat
1.00

Raja Casablanca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.61
FAR Rabat
1.39

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.61
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
71%
Raja Casablanca or FAR Rabat
72%
Draw or FAR Rabat
57%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
19%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
72%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
36%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
14%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
63%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
26%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
59%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.61 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
43%
level
28%
FAR Rabat scores more
29%

Raja Casablanca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Hamza Khabba
40'
Mouhcine Iajour
70'
Ayoub Nanah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 2–1 FAR Rabat

Raja Casablanca beat FAR Rabat 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 23, 2019.

Goals: Hamza Khabba (39'), Mouhcine Iajour (40'), Ayoub Nanah (70').

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).