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Raja Beni Mellal vs Hassania Agadir — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
5/25/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Relegation RoundStade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal27%
×Draw30%
Hassania Agadir43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
0.88
Hassania Agadir
1.19

Hassania Agadir creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 119 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.57
Hassania Agadir
0.80

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.57
Hassania Agadir
1.18

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
57%
Raja Beni Mellal or Hassania Agadir
70%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
73%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
9%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
59%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
22%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
6%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
70%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
33%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
39%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.57 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Hassania Agadir attack 0.80 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
27%
level
30%
Hassania Agadir scores more
43%

Hassania Agadir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
Ayoub Adila
58'
M. El Kayssoumi← Z. Zerouali
64'
H. Moumadi← M. Bakhkhach
70'
A. Nahli← R. Ech-Ghgraoui
71'
Z. Brighet← N. Ba
78'
A. Boukhanfer← F. Bendahmane
78'
A. Kaidi← M. Katiba
80'
I. Aouadi← A. Ait Khassou
90+5'
Z. Ami← A. Lalioune

Statistics

RajaHassania
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Hassania Agadir

Raja Beni Mellal and Hassania Agadir drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.